This post is a follow-up to the previous one on a simple system for hedging long exposure during a market downturn. It was inspired by H. Krishnan’s book
Basically, the paper says that the equity indices exhibit fatter tails in shorter time frames, from 1 to 4 days. We apply this idea to our breakout system. We’d like to see whether the 4-day rule manifests itself in this simple strategy. To do so, we use the same entry rule as before, but with a different exit rule. The entry and exit rules are as follows,
The system was backtested on SPY from 1993 to the present. Graph below shows the average trade PnL as a function of number of days in the trade, [caption id="attachment_350" align="aligncenter" width="485"] Average trade PnL vs. days in trade[/caption] We observe that if we exit this trade within 4 days of entry, the average loss (i.e. the cost of hedging) is in the range of -0.2% to -0.4%, i.e. an average of -0.29% per trade. From day 5, the loss becomes much larger (more than double), in the range of -0.6% to -0.85%. The smaller average loss incurred during the first 4 days might be a result of the fat-tail behaviour. This test shows that there is some evidence that the scaling behaviour demonstrated in Ref [1] still holds true today, and it manifested itself in this system. More rigorous research should be conducted to confirm this.
[1] Gopikrishnan P, Plerou V, Nunes Amaral LA, Meyer M, Stanley HE, Read Full Article Here: A Simple Hedging System with Time Exit
0 Comments
Insulated by cheap money from the QE era and bolstered by cash on their balance sheets, it remains rare for companies in Europe and the U.S. to miss debt payments. Among higher-risk speculative-grade firms the default rate fell to 2.9 percent last quarter, and may drop further to 2.1 percent by year-end, according to Moody’s Investors Service. And only one investment-grade firm has defaulted since 2012, data from Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings show.“Default rates are on the floor,” said Fraser Lundie, co-head of credit at Hermes Investment Management. “Fundamentals still broadly stack up.” Read moreHowever, note that the default rate they talked about is historical default rate. It does not predict future defaults. In fact, historical default rate to future probability of default is what historical volatility to implied volatility. Just because the recent historical volatility is low it does not mean that the volatility risk is low. This applies to the credit market too. But default rates aren’t the only thing credit investors care about. Spreads have widened to levels not seen for more than a year as concerns grow of overheating in the U.S. market, trade disputes, rising rates, inflation and the end of the European Central Bank’s bond-buying program.… The credit market may also be downplaying the potential impact of tariffs, analysts at UBS Group AG wrote in a July 24 report. They say investors should be cautious about sectors including tech, industrials, metals and mining. Higher corporate leverage may also lead to an increase in stress among non-cyclical industries such as consumer staples and healthcare, the analysts including Bhanu Baweja wrote.…The end of loose monetary policies may also boost defaults in emerging markets next year, according to Abdul Kadir Hussain, the head of fixed income at Arqaam Capital, a Dubai-based investment bank.ByMarketNews Published via http://harbourfronttechnologies.blogspot.com/ Last year, in a post entitled Credit Derivatives-Is This Time Different we wrote about credit derivatives and their potential impact on the markets. Since then, they have started attracting more and more attention. For example, Bloomberg recently reported that collateralized loan obligations (CLO), a type of complex credit derivatives, are becoming a favorite financing vehicle for corporate America.
As reported by the Washington Post, money raised from these CLOs is used to finance corporate stock buybacks and dividend payouts.
In the current market environment, it’s difficult to evaluate the riskiness of these CLOs. First of all, Value at Risk (VaR), a popular risk measure used by many financial institutions to quantify the risks and manage economic capital, has been developed and tested in a low-interest rate and low-volatility environment. This makes the VaR vulnerable to future change in the market environment. Second, in the calculation of VaR for a credit derivative portfolio, we would have to determine the probabilities of default (PD) and loss given default (LGD) of the borrowers. Both of these quantities are difficult to estimate. Furthermore, the correlation between PD and LGD is not constant and will likely increase during a market stress. All of these factors make the VaR less accurate. Consequently, managing the risks of a CLO portfolio is a non-trivial task. A slight change in the market environment can lead to damaging consequences. Originally Published Here: Are Collateralized Loan Obligations the New Debt Bombs? Goldman analysts Rocky Fishman and John Marshall said that the VIX, which uses options bets on the S&P 500 to reflect expected volatility over the coming 30 days, has been hovering at or below 13, marking its lowest level since around January (though it is tipping up in Monday trade). Its current level takes the gauge of implied volatility, which tends to rise when stocks fall and vice versa, well below its historic average at about 19.5 since the fear index ripped higher in February.Goldman argues that the 5-day intraday swings of the S&P 500 have been out of whack with the price of the cost of a one-month straddle on the index. A straddle is an options bet that allows an investor to profit from a sharp move in an asset, but without wagering on the specific direction of that expected move. In other words, it is an inherent bet on volatility. A straddle can be structured by buying a put option, which confers the owner the right but not the obligation to sell an asset at a given time and price, and a call option, which offers the comparable right to buy an underlying asset, at the same expiration date and strike price. Read more
But is the volatility index predictable? How about VIX futures and ETFs?A recent research article raised some interesting questions, The VIX index is not traded on the spot market. Hence, in contrast to other futures markets, the VIX futures contract and spot index are not linked by a no-arbitrage condition. We examine (a) whether predictability in the VIX index carries over to the futures market, and (b) whether there is independent time series predictability in VIX futures prices.The answer is no. The answer to both questions is no. Samuelson (1965) was right: VIX futures prices properly anticipate predictability in volatility, and are themselves unpredictable. Read moreBut then why do we trade VIX futures and ETFs?We think that the reasons might be: - Trading the spot VIX is difficult,
- When trading VIX futures and ETFs, we exchange the predictability of the spot index for a little extra return stemming from the volatility risk premium.
ByMarketNews Published via http://harbourfronttechnologies.blogspot.com/ The overnight index swap (OIS) has come into the spotlight recently, due to the widening of the Libor-OIS spread. For example, the Economist recently reported:
[caption id="attachment_459" align="aligncenter" width="628"] Libor-OIS spread as at May 2, 2018. Source: Bloomberg[/caption]
An overnight index swap is a fixed/floating interest rate swap that involves the exchange of the overnight rate compounded over a specified term and a fixed rate. The floating leg of the swap is related to an index of an overnight reference rate, for example Canadian Overnight Repo Rate Average (CORRA) in Canada or Fed Funds rate in the US. Usually, for swaps with maturities of 1 year or less there is only one payment. Beyond the tenor of 1 year, there are multiple payments at regular intervals. At the inception of the swap, the par swap rate makes the value of swap zero. That is, the net present value (NPV) of the fixed leg equals the NPV of the floating leg, where
t_{i}is the daily accrual factor, and
t._{K}The OIS discount factors (DF) are often used to value interest rate derivatives that require a posting of collateral. The OIS discount factor curve is built by bootstrapping from the short maturity and long maturity overnight index swap rates in order of increasing maturity. The processes for backing out the discount factors from the short and long maturity swap rates are, however, different. In the short end of the curve, given that there is only 1 payment, the discount factor is calculated based on the spot rates. At the long end of the curve, the DF curve is determined as follows, - Payment dates are generated at each 6 months (or a year, depending on the currency) from the time zero up to 30 years,
- Par swap rates are determined at each payment date. To obtain the par swap rates for the payment dates where there are no swap quotes, one linearly interpolates the par swap rates in order to complete the long end of the swap curve,
- Using the par swap rates at each payment date, discount factors are obtained by solving a recursive equation.
This is just an introduction to OIS discounting. The process for building an OIS discount curve involves many technical details. We are happy to answer your questions. Article Source Here: Overnight Index Swap Discounting
Bill Benter is one of the most profitable professional gamblers in the world. According to Wikipedia
William Benter was born and raised in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.[2] As he grew up, he wanted to use his mathematical talents to make a profit so immediately after finishing a university physics degree in 1977,[3] he went to the blackjack tables in Las Vegas and used his skills to count cards. He came across the book, Beat the Dealer, by Edward O. Thorp, which helped him improve his methods.[4] Seven years later, he was banned from most of Vegas’ strip’s casinos.[2]
Benter then met with Alan Woods, a like-minded gambler whose expertise in horse racing complemented his own in computers. The two became racing partners and in 1984, moved to Hong Kong.[3] Starting with a mere US$150,000 (equivalent to US$353,331 in 2017), the pair relied on their mathematical skill to create a formula for choosing race winners.[2]
Using his statistical model, Benter identified factors that could lead to successful race predictions. He found that some came out as more important than others.[5] Benter later worked with Robert Moore.
Benter is a visiting professor at the Southampton Management School[6] as part of the Centre for Risk Research and a fellow of the Royal Statistical Society.[7]
Bloomberg recently published an interesting story about his career,
Benter grew up in a Pittsburgh idyll called Pleasant Hills. He was a diligent student and an Eagle Scout, and he began to study physics in college. His parents had always given him freedom—on vacations, he’d hitchhiked across Europe to Egypt and driven through Russia—and in 1979, at age 22, he put their faith to the test. He left school, boarded a Greyhound bus, and went to play cards in Las Vegas.
Benter had been enraptured by Beat the Dealer, a 1962 book by math professor Edward Thorp that describes how to overcome the house’s advantage in blackjack. Thorp is credited with inventing the system known as card counting: Keep track of the number of high cards dealt, then bet big when it’s likely that high cards are about to fall. It takes concentration, and lots of hands, to turn a tiny advantage into a profit, but it works.
Thorp’s book was a beacon for shy young men with a gift for mathematics and a yearning for a more interesting life. When Benter got to Las Vegas, he worked at a 7-Eleven for $3 an hour and took his wages to budget casinos. The Western—with its dollar cocktails and shabby patrons getting drunk at 10 a.m.—and the faded El Cortez were his turf. He didn’t mind the scruff. It thrilled him to see scientific principles play out in real life, and he liked the hedonistic city’s eccentric characters. It was the era of peak disco, with Donna Summer and Chic’s Le Freak all over the radio. On a good day, Benter might win only about $40, but he’d found his métier—and some new friends. Fellow Thorp acolytes were easy to spot on casino floors, tending to be conspicuously focused and sober. Like them, Benter was a complete nerd. He had a small beard, wore tweedy jackets, and talked a lot about probability theory. Read more
But can a winning horse racing system be applied to the stock markets? Benter himself provided an answer in this video
ByMarketNews
Published via http://harbourfronttechnologies.blogspot.com/ In a previous post, we showed that the spot volatility index, VIX, has a strong mean reverting tendency. In this follow-up installment we’re going to further investigate the mean reverting properties of the VIX. Our primary goal is to use this study in order to aid options traders in positioning and/or hedging their portfolios. To do so, we first calculate the returns of the VIX index. We then determine the quantiles of the return distribution. The table below summarizes the results.
We next calculate the returns of the VIX after a significant volatility spike. We choose round-number spikes of 3% and 6%, which roughly correspond to the 75% and 85% quantiles, respectively. Finally, we count the numbers of occurrences of negative VIX returns, i.e. instances where it decreases to below its initial value before the spike. Tables below present the numbers of occurrences 1, 5, 10 and 20 days out. As in a previous study, we divide the volatility environment into 2 regimes: low (VIX<=20) and high (VIX>20). We used data from January 1990 to December 2017.
We observe the followings, - The greater the spike, the stronger the mean reversion. For example, for all volatility regimes (“all cases”), 10 days after the initial spike of 3%, the VIX decreases 60% of the time, while after a 6% volatility spike it decreases 64% of the time,
- The mean reversion is stronger in the high volatility regime. For example, after a volatility spike of 3%, if the VIX was initially low (<20), then after 10 days it reverts 57% of the time, while if it was high (>20) it reverts 66% of the time,
- The longer the time frame (days out), the stronger the mean reversion.
The implication of this study is that - After a volatility spike, the risk of a long volatility position, especially if VIX options are involved, increases. We would better off reducing our vega exposure or consider taking profits, at least partially,
- If we don’t have a position prior to a spike, we then can take advantage of its quick mean reversion by using bounded-risk options positions.
Learn More Here: VIX Mean Reversion After a Volatility Spike
The violent sell off in the equity markets during the last 2 months reminds us of the importance of risk management. Some traders, investors wanted to eliminate the risks completely. However, we note that risks cannot be eliminated, only managed.
In this video,
Anthony Carfang of Treasury Strategies testifies before the U.S. House Committee on Financial Services. The Subcommittee on Capital Markets and Government-Sponsored Enterprises conducted the hearing on February 24, 2016. First five minutes are Carfang's opening statement. That is followed by questions to him from members of the committee.
He stated that risk can only be transferred, but cannot be suppressed.
Similarly, Perry Kaufman made the same statement in this video. This is an interview conducted by Alex Gerchik for his Russian audience.
Click here for more interviews.
ByMarketNews
Published via http://harbourfronttechnologies.blogspot.com/ In this post, we are going to examine a trading system with the goal of using it as a hedge for long equity exposure. To this end, we test a simple, short-only momentum system. The rules are as follows,
The Table below presents results for SPY from 1993 to the present. We performed the tests for 2 different volatility regimes: low (VIX<=20) and high (VIX>20). Note that we have tested other lookback periods and VIX filters, but obtained qualitatively the same results.
It can be seen that the average PnL for all trades is -0.3%, so overall shorting SPY is a losing trade. This is not surprising, since in the short term the SP500 exhibits a strong mean reverting behavior, and in a long term it has a positive drift. We still expected that when volatility is high, the SP500 would exhibit some momentum characteristics and short selling would be profitable. The result indicates the opposite. When VIX>20, the average trade PnL is -0.37%, which is higher (in absolute value) than the average trade PnL for the lower volatility regime and all trades combined (-0.23% and -0.3% respectively). This result implies that the mean reversion of the SP500 is even stronger when the VIX is high. The average trade PnL, however, does not tell the whole story. We next look at the maximum favorable excursion (MFE). Table below summarizes the results
Despite the fact that the short SPY trade has a negative expectancy, both the average and median MFEs are positive. This means that the short SPY trades often have large unrealized gains before they are exited at the close. Also, as volatility increases, the average, median and largest MFEs all increase. This is consistent with the fact that higher volatility means higher risks. The above result implies that during a sell-off, a long equity portfolio can suffer a huge drawdown before the market stabilizes and reverts. Therefore, it’s prudent to hedge long equity exposure, especially when volatility is high. An interesting, related question arises: should we use options or futures to hedge, which one is cheaper? Based on the average trade PnL of -0.37% and gamma rent derived from the lower bound of the VIX, a back of the envelope calculation indicated that hedging using futures appears to be cheaper. See More Here: A Simple System For Hedging Long Portfolios We have written many blog posts about the increase in volatility of volatility. See, for example Is Volatility of Volatility Increasing? What Caused the Increase in Volatility of Volatility? Similarly, last week Bloomberg reported,
[caption id="attachment_454" align="aligncenter" width="628"] VVIX (volatility of volatility index) as at March 23 2018. Source: stockcharts.com[/caption] The rise of the volatility of volatility increases the chance of a Black Swan event happening. Recently, we presented a study showing that a down day of 4% during a bull market is a very rare event. It happened on February 5, and before that the last time this occurred, it was 18 years ago.
Similarly, AQR looked at the February 5 event from the implied/realized volatility perspective.
Again, from the implied/realized volatility point of view, the recent event was a rare occurrence, though not unprecedented. In times like this, risk management is more important than ever. Post Source Here: Black Swan and Volatility of Volatility |